The pace of the international arms market experienced a slight deceleration over the past five years, though significant regional spikes in demand continue to reshape global conflict zones. According to a recent assessment by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the volume of major arms transfers between 2019 and 2023 was marginally lower than the preceding five-year span (2014-2018), marking only the second period since 2007 that the global trade has contracted. This reduction, however, masks escalating tensions and substantial increases in imports by nations facing immediate security threats, particularly in Europe and Asia.
The marginal global decrease of just 3.5 per cent was largely driven by a reduction in imports by key Middle Eastern and South American nations. Conversely, Europe recorded a dramatic 94 per cent surge in arms acquisitions, primarily propelled by NATO members restocking inventories and modernising their forces following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Reshuffling the Supplier and Buyer Landscape
The United States cemented its dominant position as the world’s largest arms exporter, significantly increasing its share of global transfers from 34 per cent to 42 per cent. This growth reflects Washington’s continued role as the primary security guarantor for a vast network of allies, including nations aggressively pivoting away from Russian equipment.
France, meanwhile, overtook Russia to become the second-largest global arms supplier for the first time since SIPRI began tracking in 1950. French exports jumped by an impressive 47 per cent, largely on the back of major fighter jet deliveries to nations like India, Qatar, and Egypt. This shift underscores a broader trend: nations are increasingly seeking alternatives to Russia, which saw its arms exports nearly halve due to production backlogs and international sanctions.
India retained its position as the world’s largest arms importer, with its acquisitions rising by 4.7 per cent. Its strategy remains complex, balancing continued reliance on Russian hardware with diversification towards French and US systems.
Asia: A Hotbed of Military Modernisation
Beyond Europe, East Asia and Oceania remain regions of profound concern. Imports to this vital strategic area rose by 4.9 per cent over the period. SIPRI analysis highlights the growing trend of proximate rivals escalating their military capabilities in response to perceived threats.
China, though its imports decreased by 13 per cent as its domestic arms industry matured, remains a significant element in the regional matrix, particularly regarding its transfers to Pakistan. Pakistan, now the fifth largest global importer, saw its arms intake increase by 43 per cent, with 82 per cent originating from Beijing, intensifying the security dilemma across South Asia.
Similarly, Japan and Australia registered notable increases in their imports, reflecting proactive defence policies aimed at bolstering maritime security and long-range strike capabilities. Japan’s reliance on US arms remained high as it expands its defensive perimeter.
Implications for Global Stability
While the overall global total suggests a cooling market, the geographic distribution of arms transfers indicates a pronounced shift toward militarisation in specific flashpoints. The exponential rise in European imports signals a fundamental reappraisal of security dynamics following renewed interstate conflict.
“The continued high volume of arms transfers into Europe is a direct result of ongoing security fears provoked by Russia’s war on Ukraine,” noted Dr. Helena Kostecki, a senior researcher on military expenditure at SIPRI. “The US and its Western European allies are actively filling these capability gaps, solidifying the division between spheres of influence.”
The trend suggests that while overall numbers may plateau temporarily, investment in high-end military systems continues unabated in theatre-specific regions like Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific. This focused rearmament, driven by strategic competition rather than generalised global conflict, is likely to influence international security policies and defence budgets for the foreseeable future, potentially leading to further regional arms races.
